In Turkey, the vox populi is rising once again, reminiscent of the Gezi uprising that occurred 12 years ago. After a week of continuous protests in multiple cities—against the arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu—authorities have put a ban on gatherings and detained close to 2,000 individuals.
The unlawful and unconstitutional arrest of İmamoğlu is the culmination of over two decades of political erosion under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s increasingly autocratic governance. It has systematically undermined democratic institutions, silenced dissent, and played up the Islamist agenda internationally, particularly on the matter of Kashmir.
Now, in the streets of Turkey’s major cities, thousands of people, mostly students and youth, are pushing back against Erdoğan, and their defiance is growing louder by the day.
At the heart of this unrest lies the struggle for Turkey’s political future—and the figure leading this charge—Ekrem İmamoğlu.
İmamoğlu, a calm and charismatic mayor, was arrested under politically motivated charges of corruption and embezzlement—accusations that many see as a pretext for silencing a rising political star. His arrest was an absurd spectacle. Taken from his walk-in closet while calmly adjusting his tie, İmamoğlu was detained merely hours before he was set to be nominated as the presidential candidate by Turkey’s Opposition in the 2028 elections.
For a leader with immense support across Turkey, this act of political repression has galvanised protests not just in Istanbul but across the nation.
But why has one figure— mayor of Istanbul since 2019—become the focal point of such a significant crisis?
İmamoğlu emerged from obscurity in 2019, defeating the candidate supported by Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) by 13,000 votes—when no one thought he could.
Before İmamoğlu, conservatives form the AKP had ruled Istanbul for 25 years. Erdoğan himself owes the foundations of his political career to his mayorship of Istanbul in the 1990s.
What made it even more embarrassing for AKP was that, at the latter’s appeal for a re-election in 2019, İmamoğlu won again—this time by a staggering 800,000 votes. With a repeat of his winning spree in 2024, it became clear that he alone could not only challenge but also defeat Erdoğan, ushering in a new era for a jaded Turkish society fraying at its ends with Islamic hardliners and their discontent.
Therein lies the answer that İmamoğlu poses to Erdoğan’s rule. Since Erdoğan’s rise to power, Turkey has shifted from a secular republic, founded on the principles of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, into a country where political Islam has steadily become the dominant force in politics. İmamoğlu – with his moderate stance and inclusive appeal – and his lineage form the same party, Republican’s People’s Party (CHP) that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk founded, represents an alternative vision, a breather, for Turkey; a vision of a pluralistic, secular democracy that contrasts sharply with Erdoğan’s increasingly hardline agenda and divisive politics.
Erdoğan’s Turkey has seen dissent suppressed, its economy faltering under soaring inflation, and its international relations strained by controversial stances on global issues. His government has sidelined moderate voices in Turkey, restricting Sufi sects and undermining the secular identity that once made Ankara a beacon of moderate Islam.
Quest for power
Since 2011, consolidating presidential power has been the central focus of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political agenda. His confidence surged after becoming Turkey’s first directly elected president in 2014. However, it was the alleged failed coup attempt in 2016, attributed to Fethullah Gülen, that served as the catalyst for Erdoğan to introduce sweeping measures.
The coup attempt led to widespread purges across civil society and the bureaucracy, while also marking a profound shift in the structure of the Turkish state. To secure his grip on power, Erdoğan pushed through significant reforms, transforming Turkey’s parliamentary system into a presidential one. The 2017 constitutional changes abolished the office of prime minister and effectively solidified the president’s role as the central figure in the government, supported by vice presidents.
Under these reforms, the president gained significant authority, including the power to appoint cabinet ministers without needing parliamentary approval, propose budgets, and appoint more than half of the members of Turkey’s highest judicial body. Furthermore, the president was granted the ability to dissolve the national assembly and declare states of emergency. This concentration of power in the hands of a single individual is one of the key drivers behind the current political unrest in the country.
A serious competitor
Ekrem İmamoğlu poses a serious threat to Erdoğan’s rule. Not only is he a formidable contender in any fair political contest, but he also represents the biggest obstacle to Erdoğan’s plan for further constitutional changes. The 2017 reforms ensured that Erdoğan could remain president until 2029, but he could still seek to change the constitution again or call for early elections. To do so, Erdoğan would need a majority in parliament, where the Opposition Republican People’s Party is currently the second-largest faction. In order to maintain control, Erdoğan’s most effective strategy is to undermine İmamoğlu, the CHP’s most prominent figure.
On the international front, Erdoğan and Turkey’s military, the Turkish Armed Forces (Reis), have been in a relatively strong position. The European Union, which was once a harsh critic of Erdoğan, has softened its stance due to his support for Ukraine. It has also to do with Turkey’s newfound influence in the Middle East, following the ousting of Russia-Iran-backed Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.
Turkey’s involvement in NATO’s expansion—particularly in facilitating Sweden (and Finland’s) NATO membership—has also prompted favourable gestures from the West. This comes despite earlier sanctions by the United States over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 missile defence systems.
Erdoğan aims to leverage this favourable geopolitical context to push through another set of constitutional changes domestically. By doing so, he intends to eliminate dissent and further entrench his hold on power in a more autocratic manner, solidifying his authority both domestically and internationally.
To keep İmamoğlu out of the presidential race, Erdoğan has pressured Istanbul University to revoke his bachelor’s degree, as a university degree is required to run for president in Turkey. If Erdoğan’s government can easily suppress the Opposition by manipulating the legal system, it signals a worrying future for Turkey. Such actions push it closer to the path of authoritarian governments like Russia or Belarus, where democracy is merely a façade.
However, it is the Turkish people that refuse to back down. The scale of these protests, alongside severe economic consequences such as the sharp fall of the Turkish lira, suggests that the country could be nearing a significant course correction. The Turkish central bank has had to inject billions of dollars into the economy to stabilise the currency. Turkish stocks faced their most significant weekly decline since the 2008 global financial crisis, with the blue-chip ISE 100 index dropping over 16 per cent at the height of the sell-off.
All these impacts could be a major problem for Erdoğan because in recent years, Turkish investors have turned to the stock market as a way to safeguard their wealth from high inflation, which stands at around 39 per cent this month.
The future of Ekrem İmamoğlu and the Turkish state remains uncertain. But it serves as a reminder for the global community to consider the contextual factors behind uprisings in controlled societies. As Turkey’s actions disrupt India’s core national interests regarding Kashmir and Pakistan, the more oppressive aspects of Erdoğan’s government are closely scrutinised. Recent mass protests in Serbia and Georgia have not garnered the same attention in India, though, with many dismissing them as ‘Western-backed’.
Once again, this reflects a failure and challenge to recognise people’s agency within troubled societies, whose actions shape their political realities.
Swasti Rao is a consulting editor at ThePrint and a foreign policy expert. She tweets @swasrao. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
Educative column. 2. Sultan Erdogan is the maestro, playing on many frequencies without missing a beat. More Ottoman Empire than Kemal Ataturk. Only the helming of the economy has been a soft spot. Has now brought in a more professional team.