Trump’s deal with Putin faces European reality check

BRUSSELS ― When European leaders meet on Thursday, they do so knowing they must find a way to retain their best bargaining chips over Russia ― even as the Americans may be negotiating them away.

The summit in Paris represents a moment of truth. Leaders will try to agree a collective response to signals coming from Washington that the administration of Donald Trump wants to ease sanctions on Moscow as an incentive to stop fighting Ukraine. While the United States might find that a useful tactic, European governments believe many concessions are not America's to give.

They're fearful the White House is being too quick to give up essential leverage, four European diplomats said. On Wednesday, U.S. and Kremlin officials claimed negotiators in Saudi Arabia ― where they held face-to-face talks ― had opened the door to restrictions being eased on access to the international financial system as well as insurance for oil and gas tankers as part of a trade for a ceasefire in the Black Sea.

Now, the European Union is seeking clarity on what is being offered up at the talks behind its back, particularly given decisions over sanctions on the Belgium-based international payments service SWIFT and on Russia's shadow fleet — ships Moscow uses to circumvent sanctions and maintain oil exports — lay firmly with European capitals.

“We are talking about core, hard sanctions," an EU diplomat said. "If the Russians want them to be lifted, they need to have a confrontation with us, not only with the Americans.”

Governments also realize that there's a tangled web of diplomacy at play where little can be taken at face value and there may be bluff and double-bluff on all sides. Trying to unpick that has also become a European priority.

Aside from the straight choice of whether it's better to keep sanctions or not, "there is also a risk if the EU rejects Putin's demands, both Trump and Putin would seize the opportunity to blame the EU for Trump's failed peace efforts," said Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, a think tank.  If the EU starts to back down, "it could also cause divisions within the EU ... [which] may be Putin's main goal."

Unprovoked and unjustified aggression

The summit in Paris is the latest of a series of gatherings that have been held in Paris and London in recent weeks, with French President Emmanuel Macron and United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer leading efforts to provide Ukraine with security guarantees.

Leaders from over 30 countries and international organizations, including EU members as well as the U.K. and Turkey, are expected to attend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held talks with Macron Wednesday evening and will stay for the summit.

"There is so much happening behind the scenes, the first point is to get clarity" on what Ukraine and the U.S. agreed, which is where Zelenskyy can help the EU out, a European diplomat said.

The European Commission denied claims the EU's stance on sanctions could change as a result of the U.S.-Russia talks. Macron went even further late Wednesday, saying the sanctions will remain because Moscow has proven in recent days it is not negotiating in good faith.

"We're not going to lift sanctions," he said at a news conference alongside Zelenskyy. "It's way too early."

The idea that Europe would lift sanctions before Russia stops attacking "is completely absurd," said Miloš Vystrčil, the head of the Czech Senate. "It’s like a husband beating his wife and the husband will say I will only stop when the wife stops calling for help."

While any change to EU sanctions ― whether lifting them or renewing them ― has to be agreed by all 27 members of the bloc, countries close to the Russian border aren't just wary of them being lifted, they're actively pushing for more.

"Sanctions are crucial in limiting Russia’s ability to reconstitute and launch future aggression against its neighbors," Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže told POLITICO. Her country will push for them to be "further strengthened," rather than weakened, she said, "to push Russia toward genuine engagement in peace efforts."

Black Sea deal

Following the Russia-U.S. talks on Tuesday, the Kremlin said that the U.S. would help “restore access for Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports to the world market, reduce the cost of marine insurance, and expand access to ports and payment systems to conduct such transactions.”

Ukraine’s top sanctions official told POLITICO earlier this month that Kyiv could be open to sanctions being dropped, but only in exchange for a lasting and durable peace that delivers justice and security for the country, rather than as a bargaining chip to be given away early on.

"The simple lifting of sanctions is not possible unless the situation is totally rectified, that means giving up [occupied] territories, stopping aggression and paying for damages," Estonia's Ambassador to France Lembit Uibo told POLITICO. "These are the conditions."

An official from the French president's office told reporters on Tuesday that sanctions and frozen assets weren’t on the formal agenda for Thursday’s summit. However, they are likely to be discussed in light of the potential Black Sea deal.

According to the same official, leaders will discuss ways to make the Franco-British proposal to deploy a "reassurance force" to Ukraine "more operational and more concrete" in the event of a ceasefire. France, the U.K and several other European countries, have been seeking to weigh in on truce talks between the U.S. and Russia, by pushing for the deployment of European troops to Ukraine, with support from the American forces.

Clea Caulcutt reported from Paris. Victor Jack contributed reporting from Brussels.