Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news politicians are defining everything as a 'security issue', and that is twisting how the world's economy operates.
If you are planning a trip to the US and it is for longer than 30 days, you should know that you are automatically suspected of "invading" and will have to register with the Department of Homeland Security (via the USCIS) and provide fingerprints. This is not required for a tourist entering on a short-term I-94 basis. This is in the news because of the impact on Canadians who winter in the US. Now Canadians won't have to provide fingerprints in a special exemption, but they will have to register. There will now be far fewer 'snowbirds'.
In Canada, retreating car sales, especially of American brands, has seen their February retail sales take an unexpected dip. They fell by -0.4% from the previous month and January was revised lower, so that is back-to-back falls in retail sales for the first time since June 2024. A +0.3% rise was anticipated in February. Year on year, February retail sales were up +4.2%.
The Japanese inflation rate dipped to 3.7% in February from a 2-year high of 4.0% in January. Helping was a sharp pullback in price of electricity, up +9.0% in February from a year ago, back from +18.0% in January on the same basis. New utility bill subsidies are behind that shift.
As expected, Malaysia's CPI inflation rate came in at +1.5%, but that was its lowest since February 2021. Their food prices were stable, housing costs fell.
In China, they are piling on the pressure to try and stop the Hong Kong company who owns the Panama port facilities from completing the deal to sell it to America's Blackrock. CK Hutchison is in an impossible situation now, a pawn between great powers. How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.
The Russian central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 21%, a compromise for what the regulator thinks should be a rise to counter rising inflation (10.1% and up from 7.7% a year ago), and what the Kremlin and oligarchs want, being cheaper financing.
In a bit of a surprise to many analysts, EU consumer sentiment did not improve in March as it has done previously in 2025, rather it dipped lower. To be fair, it has been deeply negative since mid-2021 and running below its long term average for the past two years.
Here's something you don't see everyday. A ratings agency putting a whole sector on 'watch' - in advance of failures. This is from Australia's SQM Research who now say the private credit sector (aka, the private debt sector, or 'private equity') is facing a wave of bad loans. It has a list of 14 issues that the sector is deficient with. Companies owned/funded by this sector are at heightened risk of short-term cut-and-run strategies, making matters worse.
The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +1 bp from yesterday at this time. But that is -6 bps lower than a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +30 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is now -3 bp. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now -4 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.45% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.90% and down -3 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.62%, up +2 bps from yesterday. A week ago it was at 4.68%.
Wall Street has opened its Friday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3%. If that holds it will be +0.2% firmer for the week. This market is being held back by disappointing forecasts from key companies including FedEx and Nike. Overnight European markets were all lower by about -0.6%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed down -0.2% for a net +2.9% weekly gain. Hong Kong ended its Friday session down -2.2% and that was its weekly drop too. Shanghai was down -1.3% for a weekly -1.9% retreat. Singapore was down -0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade up +0.2% for a +1.8% weekly rise. But the NZX50 only rose +0.5% at the end of Friday's trade for a -1.3% weekly fall.
The Fear & Greed Index ends the week staying in the 'extreme fear' zone, and unchanged from the past few weeks.
The price of gold will start today at just on US$3015/oz and down a net -US$15 from yesterday. A week ago this was at US$2983/oz so a +1.1% rise since then.
Oil prices are up another +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$68.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just over US$72/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$67/bbl and US$70.50/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. A week ago, it was at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and +10 bps firmer. A week ago it was at 66.7.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,901 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at US$84,261. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.9%.
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14 Comments
China bans the exec team of CKH from leaving HK
As David comments;
How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.
But I dread to anticipate.
And what I can't figure out is why?
The Rubio visit was odd - at least what I heard reported. His first announcement on home soil was that he had secured an agreement that US military ships would not be charged to use the canal - and immediately the Canal Authority said that was not the case.
And, when he left for Panama I don't recall any discussion about tacking on El Salvador to the trip - but back on home soil he was all on about ... Read more
As David comments;
How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.
But I dread to anticipate.
And what I can't figure out is why?
The Rubio visit was odd - at least what I heard reported. His first announcement on home soil was that he had secured an agreement that US military ships would not be charged to use the canal - and immediately the Canal Authority said that was not the case.
And, when he left for Panama I don't recall any discussion about tacking on El Salvador to the trip - but back on home soil he was all on about what an amazingly friendly offer it was from their government to open up their prisons to the US. As if it hadn't even been a planned topic of discussion! All very, very weird - unbelievable really.
And now Trump has said he didn't sign the EO invoking the Alien Enemies Act - implying it must have been Rubio;
https://nz.news.yahoo.com/trump-says-didn-t-sign-002445774.html
And check out the PR folks explanation of a 'walk back' on Trump's 'I didn't sign it' comment - lol.
Read less
It is estimated that there are over 10 million people living illegally in the USA. While it might not be polite to call them criminals nonetheless as such, they have committed a crime. The Trump administration is addressing the problem, rather starkly in truth, as obviously the problem has been burgeoning, uncontrollably so. That means exacting border controls and evictions of those already present. Unfortunately the scope of the problem means the scope of the solution is going to be painful for many, a big net set for small fish. Some though may see the consequences on offer and decide ... Read more
It is estimated that there are over 10 million people living illegally in the USA. While it might not be polite to call them criminals nonetheless as such, they have committed a crime. The Trump administration is addressing the problem, rather starkly in truth, as obviously the problem has been burgeoning, uncontrollably so. That means exacting border controls and evictions of those already present. Unfortunately the scope of the problem means the scope of the solution is going to be painful for many, a big net set for small fish. Some though may see the consequences on offer and decide to depart on their own account. If it also makes it more difficult for legitimate visitors doesn’t seem to be any other option other than to complete the due process.
Read lessI thought more but google agrees your number
~1mill illegals in the UK. They might have some other name for them. In proportion 1/65 vs 10/365, about 80% more in the US in proportion to the population but that's understandable since the illegals have been crossing into the US for at least 10 years if not more.
I wonder if the US or UK will put them into holding camps of some description?
Peter Thiel on the looming real estate catastrophe in the Anglosphere. Yet Thiel and the DGMs are painted as the Devil.
Thiel lays it out simply: When a city's population grows by 10%, housing prices can spike by 50%. But wages? They don't rise nearly as fast. So while the economy might be expanding, the real winners are homeowners—especially older generations, specifically boomers—while young and lower-middle-class Americans find themselves locked out of homeownership, struggling to compete in a market that keeps pushing prices higher.
"And it's a massive hit to the lower middle class and to young people who can never get ... Read more
Peter Thiel on the looming real estate catastrophe in the Anglosphere. Yet Thiel and the DGMs are painted as the Devil.
Thiel lays it out simply: When a city's population grows by 10%, housing prices can spike by 50%. But wages? They don't rise nearly as fast. So while the economy might be expanding, the real winners are homeowners—especially older generations, specifically boomers—while young and lower-middle-class Americans find themselves locked out of homeownership, struggling to compete in a market that keeps pushing prices higher.
"And it's a massive hit to the lower middle class and to young people who can never get on the housing ladder," Thiel said.
And this isn't just a U.S. problem. Thiel warns that the same "real estate catastrophe" is unfolding in Britain, Canada, and other countries where strict zoning laws make building new homes nearly impossible.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-peter-thiel-warns-looming-17…
Read less"And this isn't just a U.S. problem. Thiel warns that the same "real estate catastrophe" is unfolding in Britain, Canada, and other countries where strict zoning laws make building new homes nearly impossible."
Financialise residential dwellings, create a bubble and it will pop....you can trigger that devaluation (and all that it incurs) in a multitude of manners....oversupply being but one. The cause is not however under supply of the dwellings but an oversupply of (financial) capital looking for a 'home'.....the same applies to overvalued equities.
Who is nominally responsible for the money supply?...and who is responsible for its distribution?
Please keep following Du Val storey David et al. Im still angry at Byers, Hotchin and co.
Don't want the latest pump crash and walk off with millions hidden away crowd to disappear off the radar.
From the Edelman Trust Barometer, proportion of people who say that next generation in their country will be better off than their parents:
China : 69%
India : 66%
USA : 30%
Aotearoa not included but Aussie is and for this measure only 17% think the next generation will be better off than their parents.
https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2025-01/2025%20Ed…
If you want to watch a few you tube videos.
First one is Howard Lutnick the Commerce Secretary For Trump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=182ckTL2KBA
Next is Scott Bessent the Treasury
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSma9suyp24
The first bit of the next one is them talking about there 2 days in the White house
Background reading about silver [also gold] price management. This discussion is getting a little more mainstream.
https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2025-03-20/mechanics-silver-price-suppression
Simply put, the goal of silver price manipulation is to keep silver's price artificially low as well as prevent it from breaking above key technical levels that could trigger a full-blown bull market. According to consensus within the precious metals community, the primary culprits behind silver price manipulation are the bullion banks—the most influential players in the precious metals market. These include major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, UBS, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs, several of which have been found guilty of manipulating ... Read more
Background reading about silver [also gold] price management. This discussion is getting a little more mainstream.
https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2025-03-20/mechanics-silver-price-suppression
Simply put, the goal of silver price manipulation is to keep silver's price artificially low as well as prevent it from breaking above key technical levels that could trigger a full-blown bull market. According to consensus within the precious metals community, the primary culprits behind silver price manipulation are the bullion banks—the most influential players in the precious metals market. These include major financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, UBS, HSBC, and Goldman Sachs, several of which have been found guilty of manipulating precious metals markets—particularly gold and silver.
Read lessDo you think someday the matter will be called out and it (the scandal) will get its own Wiki page;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal
along with some time behind bars?
Wiki yes, prison time no. However it’s very hard to understand what is going on in the precious metals world.
On one hand the bullion banks are helping to maintain the value of the worlds fiat currencies by preventing these metals prices rising too much. A rapidly rising gold or silver price would raise questions about the value of currencies – for some groups anyway. So a lot of these price manipulations are likely condoned by the central banks or the Bank of International Settlements.
Separate point, the commentator Alasdair Macleod seems to think that one/several(?) bullion banks may have been keeping ... Read more
Wiki yes, prison time no. However it’s very hard to understand what is going on in the precious metals world.
On one hand the bullion banks are helping to maintain the value of the worlds fiat currencies by preventing these metals prices rising too much. A rapidly rising gold or silver price would raise questions about the value of currencies – for some groups anyway. So a lot of these price manipulations are likely condoned by the central banks or the Bank of International Settlements.
Separate point, the commentator Alasdair Macleod seems to think that one/several(?) bullion banks may have been keeping the price of silver relatively low previously to allow China to accumulate large quantities of silver.
Read lessGood article TC. Nothing new, but very well articulated. As the opinion notes, action has been taken against JPM but they and their cohorts continue to do as they please.
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