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Madagascar

Madagascar Food Security Outlook, February to September 2018

Attachments

Rainfall deficits in southwestern Madagascar and flooding in southeastern Madagascar disrupt agriculture

KEY MESSAGES

• The northern half of Madagascar received above average rainfall during the 2017/2018 rainy season 2017/2018 but the southern half received below average rainfall. A deficit was particularly seen in the southwest, including the Tsiribihini Delta production area that is a major food supplier to southern Madagascar, which received only 55 percent of average rainfall between October 2017 and February 2018.

• The southwest was also the first area infested by Fall Army Worm (FAW) in November 2017. According to the Plant Protection Department in the Ministry of Agriculture, FAW is currently detected in 18 regions out of 22, and is infesting approximately 5 percent of maize fields in Madagascar. A joint assessment will be conducted by FAO and this Department to assess the extent of infested fields and damages to crops in late February 2018.

• In the highlands, farmers were affected by floods caused by Cyclone Ava at the beginning of 2018 and are still in the recovery process after the loss of much of their main season crops. They are trying to transplant rice again, but availability of young plants is limited following the low production last year.

• In recent months, prices of rice stabilized at the highest level ever seen in Madagascar, due to low market supply despite the December-January harvest period and the continued depreciation of the Malagasy Ariary. In January 2018, prices of local rice were near 50 percent above the 5-year average which made access difficult for poor and middle-income households in Madagascar. Poor households switched to less preferred staple foods like dried cassava or imported rice, whereas middle income households reduced non-food expenditures to meet their food needs.

• The Southwest is experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as below normal rainfall compromised poor farmers’ livelihoods and reduced their tuber production. The Southeast was hit by Cyclone Ava in January and is still recovering from last season’s unusual dryness and is currently experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the Extreme South, although the eastern part of the zone received near normal rainfall, the western part received below normal rainfall and agricultural planting was affected; a situation worse than in 2017 but better than during the El-Nino episodes in previous years. Some households in this zone will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and others in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to May 2018.