Why a lack of GOP enthusiasm could benefit Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey's campaign

Alabama Governor Kay Ivey speaks with media following Boeing PAC-3 Missile Seeker Facility Expansion Ribbon-cutting event Friday April 6, 2018. Ivey will not participate in the Reckon by AL.com debate on Wednesday, April 18, 2018, in Birmingham, Ala. (Bob Gathany /bgathany@AL.com)

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey's absence from the Republican debate stage ahead of the June 5 primaries is occurring the same time national polls suggest a widening enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans ahead of November's midterm elections.

The Alabama GOP governor hopefuls, individually, are pointing to their own candidacies to suggest that the disenchantment, reflected in poll after poll, isn't trickling into their race.

But Ivey's lack of interest in attending the debates isn't helping to drum up Republican enthusiasm, according to the political pundits. The governor will, once again, be a debate no-show during the 7 p.m. Reckon by AL.com GOP gubernatorial debate tonight at the Lyric Fine Arts Theatre in Birmingham.

In fact, most of political observers believe the governor's race, overall, is lacking in much intrigue just months after the international spotlight shined on Alabama during the special U.S. Senate race which saw Democrat Doug Jones defeat Republican Roy Moore.

"Whatever the reason is, I have indeed been struck by how little people seem to be paying attention to this governor's race," said Quin Hillyer, a conservative writer based in Mobile. "If the lack of interest continues, it's a crying shame. After all our scandals, budget problems, and poverty, Alabama desperately needs to make a careful, thoughtful choice for its next governor, and to hold him or her responsible."

Said Richard Fording, a political science professor at the University of Alabama: "This race is going to go under-the-radar. Low turnout. And people go with the incumbent, because it's the safe thing to do."

Enthusiasm gap

National Democrats have been buoyed by recent polling that suggests their party is anticipating the Nov. 6 general elections much more than Republicans.

A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, released last weekend, shows 66 percent of Democrats expressing a high level of interest in November's elections, versus 49 percent for Republicans. It's almost an exact reversal from the same poll, conducted by the same news organizations in 2010. That year, a Republican wave thanks to the emergence of the Tea Party, showed 66 percent of Republicans expressing high levels of enthusiasm, compared with just 49 percent of Democrats.

The polling does not break down via states, nor does it show a balance between the number of Republicans versus Democrats who were questioned.

Terry Lathan, chairwoman of the Alabama GOP, said it's interesting data, but is open to scrutiny. For example, she said a recent Rasmussen poll suggested President Donald Trump carried a 51 percent approval rating, which would far surpass most of the recent presidential approval data - such as Gallup - which places the president's favorable ratings near historic lows.

"Commenting on one set of polling with little background to it when I see others saying something different is conflicting," Lathan said.

Still, other polling in recent months suggests there is a midterm election enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans.

The Pew Research Center, in January, polled registered voters and showed that 53 percent are looking forward to the midterms, up from 58 percent in 2014 and 55 percent in 2010.

Of those, 69 percent are Democrats or lean Democratic, while 58 percent are Republicans or lean GOP. Broken down further, roughly 8 in 10 liberal Democrats (83 percent) say they are looking forward to the midterm elections, up from 59 percent in 2014 and 48 percent in 2010. Only 61 percent of conservative Republicans say they are looking forward to the November elections, Pew reports.

Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University, said a similar enthusiasm gap most likely exists in Alabama. But he said the Democratic giddiness likely won't make a huge difference at the ballot box come November.

Enthusiasm, he said, "by itself will not overcome the large advantage the GOP holds in 'Bama."

"The GOP enthusiasm or lack thereof in Alabama, might lower the turnout in the primary by a small amount, but even that is debatable since there are so many contested races for state and local offices," Brown said.

Brown said Ivey isn't necessarily benefitting from voter apathy, as much as she is from competitors who he says have "weak messages."

Said Brown: "Voter complacency associated with the governor's race is a manifestation of weak campaigns by Ivey's primary opponents. Only Dawson has shown any sign of a willingness to take the fight to the governor."

He added, "If the governor can control the agenda of the campaign with superficial themes of good government and economic development, then why should she do otherwise?"

Indeed, Ivey's most recent public appearance at a campaign event in Foley Tuesday illustrated Brown's point. When asked if Ivey was concerned about her opponent's criticism about her no-shows at debates, the governor replied with a simple political message: "I am just focused on doing the job as I am given as governor, putting folks back to work. I can't focus on those kinds of comments."

Ivey also compared the governor's race to a university head football coaching search. "The state of Alabama right now is looking for a head coach and I'm the only person applying for the job who had experience coaching at that level," she said. "That state of Alabama has won every game that I've been governor. If I wasn't doing a good job, I wouldn't blame you for considering other people. But our state is undefeated."

Fording, at the University of Alabama, said Ivey's campaign comments show that she's benefitting from incumbency even if she has not been elected as governor before. Ivey, the former lieutenant governor, took over the governor's seat from Robert Bentley, who resigned in April following an alleged sex scandal with a former aide.

"She's kind of like the Gerald Ford of governors," said Fording, referring to the nation's 38th president who took over the White House in 1974 after Richard Nixon resigned following the Watergate scandal. "She hasn't been governor long enough to have the baggage to be seen as an incumbent. But she's getting the benefits of being the incumbent and that's an interesting spot for her."

Opponents pounce

Ivey's opponents are not impressed, and are critical for her debate no-shows.

Among them is Dawson, who said that politicians like Ivey fuel voter apathy.

"Voters seem to keep electing the very same politicians over and over again, decade after decade, and we keep getting the same failing results," he said, referring to Ivey's long career in public service that dates back to Gov. Fob James' tenure in the late 1970s. "The system is a museum-quality example of why voters are apathetic."

He added, "Going into November, Republicans need a strong candidate who can inspire voters to flock to the polls. In Alabama, it shouldn't be hard to beat the Democrats ... but it shouldn't be hard to show up for a debate, either."

Hightower said that Ivey not appearing at the debates does the GOP primary voters a "disservice."

"Her ideas of what she is going to do in the future are not so clear," said Hightower. "It's hard to get excited about someone who is not casting a vision on where the state is going."

Battle, meanwhile, is banking on voters' dissatisfaction with the "status quo."

"They want a governor that has taken on our toughest challenges in education, job creation and ethics," said Battle's campaign, in a statement. "Tommy Battle is the only candidate in this race that can check all of those boxes."

But does Ivey consider any of the three GOP men she's facing to be a "serious threat"? One political science professor suggests that if her campaign had reason to believe that one of them were, she'd be at the debates.

"I suspect she thinks at this point, all things being equal and no major snafus, that she has the advantage going into the primary," said Sam Fisher, a political science professor at the University of South Alabama. "She has the name recognition and she hasn't done anything that has irritated the voters that much. If she would go into a debate, I think it would signal there was a serious challenge. But at this point, that doesn't seem to be the case."

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