Informing humanitarians worldwide 24/7 — a service provided by UN OCHA

Somalia

Somalia Market Data Update: February 2017 Data (Issued March 20, 2017)

Attachments

Highlights

Inflation:
SoSh (Somali shilling)-using areas: Consumer Price Index (CPI) generally exhibits increase (8%) in most of the SoSh using areas in February 2017 month-on-month due to increase in red sorghum prices. CPI is substatially higher (19-42%) annually due to the same reasons mentioned above.

SISh (Somaliland shilling)-using areas: The CPI increased (8-16%) both month-on-month and year-on-year due to increase in cereal (red and white sorghum) and imported items prices compared to last month and last year.

Exchange rate:
SoSh-using areas: The exchange rates between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) indicated mild to moderate monthly appreciations of SoSh against USD in most regions of the country with the highest appreciation (18%) being recorded in Mogadishu (Bakara market). Annual comparison exhibited mixed trend patterns; specifically, moderate (14%) appreciation was recorded in Mogadishu (Bakara market); moderate to high (13-31%) depreciations were recorded in Mudug, Hiran, Bari, Sool and Nugaal while exchange rates in other regions exhibited mild (less than +/- 10) changes in February 2017. The exchange rate appreciation is attributed mainly to more USD supply to the market due to evolving political, particularly presidential election on 8 February as well as increased humanitarian assiaance flows in parts of the drought affected regions

SISh-using areas: The SISh appreciated (9%) against the USD in February 2017 month-on-month. Compared to one year ago, the SlSh depreciated (3%) against USD.

Local grain prices either remained relatively stable or changed (+/-) at mild rates (by less than 10%) in most regions of the country with the exception of Shabelle and Gedo regions where prices declined moderately (20-28%) month-on-month in February 2017 attributable to new harvest that arrived in the market. Annual comparison indicates higher prices for local grains in all regions of the country with the highest increase being recorded in Bay (132%) attributable to reduced supply due to poor Deyr 2016 cereal production.

Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild declines (less than +/- 10% monthly changes) in local currency terms in February 2017 in most regions of the country; the exception is Mudug where prices increased moderately (10-29%) due to increased local and cross border (Ethiopia) demand. Year-on-year comparison indicates mild to moderate price increases in most regions of the country for most of the food imports in February 2017.

Livestock prices exhibited mixed patterns; specifically, increases (mild to moderate) in goat and camel prices were recorded in most parts of the country due to reduced supply of saleable livestock; exceptions are in Middle Juba, Northwest, Banadir and Gedo regions where goat and/or camel prices decreased mildly (less than 10%) month-on-month in February 2017 due to further deterioration of livestock body conditions; Cattle prices mostly exhibited mild (less than +/- 10%) changes in most parts of the country in February month-on-month. Milk prices (camel and cattle) generally exhibited monthly increases in most regions of the country due to reduced less supply. Compared to a year ago, livestock prices for all species were significantly lower across the regions of the country in February 2017 attributable to deteriorated livestock body conditions. On the other hand, milk prices (camel and cattle) increased from moderate to high levels annually in most regions of the country in February 2017.

Labor (unskilled) wages either remained relatively stable or changed (+/-) mildly (by less than 10%) monthon-month in most of the regions of the country in February 2017. Annual comparison exhibited mixed patterns; specifically, rates increased mildly (4-11%) in central and northwest regions; the rates declined from moderate to high levels in the southern and northeast regions year-on-year as a result of reduced agricultural activities due to poor Deyr 2016 rains and harvest, particularly in south.

Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and local cereals either remained stable month-on-month or changed at mild rates (by 1-3kg of cereals/daily labor wage) in most parts of the country; an increase of 3Kg/daily labor wage in ToT was recorded in Gedo region as a result of decline in red sorghum prices and mild increase in labor wages in February 2017. ToT between local quality goat and cereals exhibited mild changes (+/-) in most regions of the country month-on-month except in Shabelle region where the ToT increased by 45Kgs/daily labor wage as a result of decline in cereal prices and increase in local quality goat prices. Annual comparison indicates the ToTs are lower across the regions of the country due to declines in labor wage rates and goat prices and/or increase in local grain prices compared to a year ago (February 2016).